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Thursday, 08 September 2016 13:47

PLEADING WITH PUTIN ON SYRIA: KREMLIN'S MAIN GOAL IS TO GET UKRAINE SANCTIONS LIFTED

Editorial, The Wall Street Journal, 07.09.2016  

 

John Kerry arrives in Geneva Thursday for more talks on Syria with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and while there might be a deal, no one should expect a durable peace.  

 

At the G-20 summit in China on Monday, Mr. Obama cited “gaps in trust” with Russia as the main obstacle to an agreement. But as the Iran nuclear deal shows, this Administration has a way of closing such gaps by agreeing to the opponent’s terms, and Mr. Obama is eager to put a bandage on a Syria policy that has midwifed a strategic catastrophe.  

 

The problem is that Mr. Obama has little leverage and less credibility. The Administration’s efforts to fund and train proxies in the fight against Bashar Assad’s regime have been inept, creating the vacuum filled by Islamic State and the Nusra Front. White House claims of “progress” in the fight against ISIS can’t disguise that the group’s capital is in Raqqa. Most of the progress so far in Syria has been achieved by Kurdish — and more recently Turkish — fighters. 

 

    

Contrary to Mr. Obama’s predictions that Vladimir Putin’s Syria foray would be a quagmire, the Russians proved that limited military means could turn the war in the Assad regime’s favor while enhancing their influence in the Middle East. Russia has created military facts on the ground that now leave the U.S. pleading with Mr. Putin for concessions.   

  

In February Mr. Kerry wangled the promise of a cease-fire from Mr. Lavrov, only to see the Russians continue to bomb civilians and U.S.-backed rebels in Aleppo as the Assad regime tightened its siege of the city. Moscow’s reward for breaking its word was a State Department offer, over Pentagon opposition, to share intelligence and targeting information with the Russians. In June Russian bombers attacked a secret garrison in southeastern Syria used by U.S. and British special forces that had been vacated only hours earlier.   

 

The Administration is spinning Mr. Kerry’s latest trip to Geneva as another attempt to test Russian intentions, and Mr. Lavrov would no doubt be happy to arrange a cease-fire for the appropriate price. The U.S. has already conceded that Mr. Assad would not have to leave office immediately as part of a political transition. Russia will also want a cease-fire that allows it to attack any target it deems a “terrorist,” meaning anyone opposed to Assad.  

 

Russia’s larger game is to use its Syrian leverage to shake off the financial sanctions from its invasion of Ukraine. On Wednesday European diplomats agreed to renew some of the sanctions for another six months, but the wider European Union sanctions will be up for discussion in October. The Kremlin has long played the game of creating problems it can solve for a price, and Syria is such an opportune problem.

   

None of this will ease civilian suffering in Syria, much less advance the American interest in deposing the Assad regime and destroying its jihadist opponents to stop the refugee flood and regional instability. In his comments Monday, Mr. Obama stressed the need to use a cease-fire “to transition into a serious conversation about a political solution.” At this point the political solution the Syrian people need most is a new Administration in Washington.

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